Kamala Harris’ Chances of Beating Donald Trump in Arizona: Recent Polls

Donald Trump is beating Kamala Harris by a narrow margin in Arizona, according to polling.
As Trump prepares to visit Arizona on Thursday, FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows that he is 0.8 points ahead of Harris in the battleground state, on 46.2 percent to the Vice President’s 45.5 percent.
Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker shows he is head by a wider margin of 1.6 points in a head-to-head matchup, while he is ahead by 1.9 points, according to pollster Nate Silver’s forecast.
Before Harris became the Democratic Party’s nominee for President, Trump had a comfortable lead over Biden in the state, which has voted for a Republican President every year since 1952, except 1996, when Bill Clinton was elected, and 2020, when Joe Biden won.
According to RealClearPolitics, Trump was ahead by 5.8 points at the beginning of July, while he was ahead by 11 points in Nate Silvers tracker, and individual polls put him ahead by up to 15 points.
However, the Republican nominee has seen a dramatic shift in his prospects in the state since Harris became the nominee, with the Vice President overtaking his lead in the state with all 3 poll trackers throughout most of August, leading him by a narrow margin of up to 1.4 points, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Meanwhile, polls coming out of the state, including a New York Times/Siena College survey conducted between August 8 and 15, have shown Harris leading Trump by up to 5 points among likely voters.
However, polls have been mixed in the state, with some showing Trump in the lead by up to 3 points, and Trump overtaking Harris on September 4, according to FiveThirtyEight, which predicts that Trump is going to win the state in November.
The latest polls from Arizona have suggested that the two candidates are tied in the state, including polls by Morning Consult, InsiderAdvantage and TIPP Insights. Other polls have shown Trump ahead, including the most recent Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll, conducted between September 6 and 9, which showed him 1 point ahead, and the most recent Morning Consult poll, published on September 8, which showed him 2 points ahead.
Nonetheless, Harris has significantly narrowed Trump’s lead in the Grand Canyon state, meaning that it is likely to be a very tight race and that the state is anybody’s to win, so both candidates are targeting the state to attract more support.
Trump is set to visit the Arizona on Thursday, when he will deliver remarks on what he describes as the “struggling” economy and the rising cost of housing in Tuscon.
The former president is also using his trip as an opportunity to attract Hispanic voters, of which there are around 1.3 million in Arizona, according to the Pew Research Center.
“President Trump will highlight Kamala Harris’ devastating policies that have wreaked havoc on Arizonans and the many reasons Hispanic voters are flocking to the Republican Party,” the Trump campaign said in a news release
“For nearly four years, Kamla Harris’ economic policies have put unnecessary stress and pressure on Arizona families,” the release added.
“The Democrat Party continues to show they have a misunderstanding of issues that are top of mind for Latino voters. Latino voters across America know Harris is dangerous and supports policies that misalign with their values.
“Additionally, Hispanic communities know they were better off under President Trump’s leadership; Trump delivered low unemployment rates, record low poverty, and record high homeownership to Hispanic communities. President Trump’s pro-growth economic agenda created an economic boom that generated countless opportunities for Hispanic Americans.”
Latinos make up 25 percent of the population of eligible voters in Arizona. In 2020, around 33 percent of Latino voters voted for Trump in Arizona, up from 30 percent in 2016, according to the ASCOA. Nationally, 38 percent of Latinos supported Trump in 2020, up from 28 percent in 2016, according to Pew.
The Trump campaign is hoping to see a boost in Hispanic support this year, in the swing states and nationally.
An August 31 poll by InsiderAdvantage in Arizona showed that 46 percent of Hispanic voters would support Donald Trump in the November election, while 51 percent said the same for Harris. Meanwhile, a Fox News poll from August 26 showed Trump had support from 36 percent of Hispanic voters in Arizona, compared to Harris’ 57 percent.
Nationally, the most recent ActiVote poll, from September 9, showed Trump could see a small increase in Hispanic support, with 40 percent of Latinos polled saying they would vote for Trump, compared to 60 percent for Harris. The most recent New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted between September 3 and 6, showed a similar trend, with 41 percent of Hispanic voters choosing Trump and 55 percent choosing Harris.
Kamala Harris visited Arizona at the beginning of August with her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Their visit drew nearly 20,000 Arizonans to the Glendale, Arizona stadium despite 105-degree weather.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.